BUZZ-COMMENT-For EUR/USD onwards is downwards

July 8 (Reuters) – With almost every factor that can influence a currency pair weighing upon EUR/USD it should continue to fall and the extent and speed of that slide could surprise, running much deeper than anything currently expected. nL1N2YP0FF

Techs are steeped in bearish territory with EUR/USD at the base of the 1.2256-1.0086 decline that has followed the Federal Reserve signal it would tighten monetary policy in June last year.

Since then a big interest rate divide has opened with the gulf in interest rates weighing a currency pair traders are unwilling to sell.

This is a crucial factor that has led to a big EUR/USD drop. Traders have continually bet the pair rises and the negligible short position that’s recently emerged will have almost no influence. Without shorts to brake the slide EUR/USD could fall quickly, and may accelerate if specs opt to sell, adding the weight to the decline.

Changes in SNB’s monetary policy are allowing EUR/USD to move more freely with volatility surging and EUR/USD dropping to a 20-year low. nL1N2YM0K8

Closes below 1.0072 would suggest it could return to the record low at 0.8228 when traders are just beginning to get excited about a parity test!

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(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))